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INTL454 - Forecasting Terrorism

Course Details

Course Code: INTL454 Course ID: 3201 Credit Hours: 3 Level: Undergraduate

This course examines the theoretical underpinnings of the phenomenon of terrorism, actual and planned cases of chemical and biological weapons use, and the modern threat of improvised weapons of mass destruction. The course surveys traditional and newer methods of forecasting terrorism: intuition-based, profiling, conflict vulnerability analysis and prognosis (early warning), etc. It concludes with a brief overview of the state of the terrorist threat almost a decade after 9/11





Course Schedule

Registration Dates Course Dates Session Weeks
11/26/18 - 05/03/19 05/06/19 - 06/30/19 Spring 2019 Session I 8 Week session
12/31/18 - 05/31/19 06/03/19 - 07/28/19 Spring 2019 Session D 8 Week session
01/28/19 - 06/28/19 07/01/19 - 08/25/19 Summer 2019 Session B 8 Week session
02/25/19 - 08/02/19 08/05/19 - 09/29/19 Summer 2019 Session I 8 Week session
03/25/19 - 08/30/19 09/02/19 - 10/27/19 Summer 2019 Session D 8 Week session
04/29/19 - 10/04/19 10/07/19 - 12/01/19 Fall 2019 Session B 8 Week session

Current Syllabi

After successfully completing this course, you will be able to:

CO-1: Describe trends in the use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists.

CO-2: Explain how WMD signatures and terrorist WMD strategy and precedents are critical in forecasting.

CO-3: Summarize the techniques found in terrorism intelligence forecasting methodologies.

CO-4: Demonstrate how elements of the post-9/11 threat environment affect the ability to forecast terrorist WMD activity.

CO-5: Apply a terrorist forecasting methodology to a hypothetical attack scenario.

The course grade is based on the following assessments:

Discussion Forums – 25 percent

Each week, a discussion question is provided and posts should reflect an assimilation of the readings. Students are required to provide a substantive initial post by Thursday at 11:55 pm ET and respond to 2 or more classmates by Sunday 11:55 pm ET. Forum posts are graded on timeliness, relevance, knowledge of the weekly readings, and the quality of original ideas.

Midterm Test - 10 percent

This assignment is an open book, timed exam to test knowledge and assimilation of the course objectives. The use of required texts and readings from this course is mandatory.

Progress Assignment: Terrorism Intelligence Indicators Exercise - 15 percent

Specialized Exercise. One page effort reflecting your research and analysis.

Final Test - 20 percent

This assignment is an open book, timed exam to test knowledge and assimilation of the course objectives. The use of required texts and readings from this course is mandatory.

Final Assignment: Research Analysis Paper – 30 percent

This assignment is an essay assignment to test knowledge and assimilation of the course objectives. The exclusive use of required texts and readings from this course is mandatory.

Required Course Textbooks

Sundri Khalsa. Forecasting Terrorism: A Web-Based Approach. Occasional Paper Number Eleven, Center for Strategic Intelligence research, Joint Military Intelligence College, 2004.

https://edgetest.apus.edu/access/content/group/security-and-global-studies-common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL454/Course%20Texts/khalsa%20forecasting%20terrorism%20NDIC%20occasional%20paper%202004.pdf

The following book is recommended:

Turabian, Kate L. 2014. A Manual for Writers of Research Papers, Theses, and Dissertations. 8th ed. The University of Chicago Press.

Required Readings

  • Peer-reviewed journal articles, book chapters, external websites and other assigned readings are found in the Lessons area of the classroom.
  • All readings found in the APUS library have been consolidated into an “E-Reserve” list located in the “Security and Global Studies” portal, INTL454 Course Guide. Instructions for accessing the E-Reserve list are listed below and are also located in the corresponding “Lessons” folder. If you’re already logged into the classroom, you can click on the following address: http://apus.campusguides.com/INTL454. After entering the classroom, select “Library” in the left hand menu within Sakai. You will be redirected to the APUS library. Select “Program/School Portals.” Select “Security and Global Studies.” Select “INTL454 Critical Analysis | Course Guide” from the dropdown menu (it may take a minute to load). Select “E-Reserves tab” from the upper left corner of the menu. Select “Continue.”
  • Weekly Lesson Notes and videos or audio files are found in the Lessons area of the classroom.
Book Title:Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior-E-book available free on RAND site
ISBN:9780833035202
Author:John Hollywood, Diane Snyder. Found online at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG126.pdf
Unit Cost:$22.81
Book Title:To find the library e-book(s) req'd for your course, please visit http://apus.libguides.com/er.php to locate the eReserve by course #. You must be logged in to eCampus first to access the links.
Author: No Author Specified
Book Title:WMD Terrorism: Science and Policy Choices - e-book available in the APUS Online Library
ISBN:9780262512855
Author:Maurer, Stephen M.
Unit Cost:$39.87

Previous Syllabi

Not current for future courses.