INTL454  - Forecasting Terrorism

This course examines the processes involved in forecasting terrorism. The syllabus examines the theoretical underpinnings of the phenomenon of terrorism, actual and planned cases of chemical and biological weapons use, and the modern threat of improvised weapons of mass destruction. It continues by differentiating the varying magnitudes of threat and effect of chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high yield explosive (CBRNE) weapons and analyzes terrorist precedent, strategy, and psychology from which terrorism forecasts and counter-terrorism activities are generated. It moves on to examine traditional and newer methods of forecasting terrorism: intuition-based, profiling, conflict vulnerability analysis and prognosis (early warning), Atypical Signal Analysis & Processing (ASAP), and the Khalsa systematic Indications and Warning (I&W) methodologies. It concludes with a brief overview of the state of the terrorist threat almost a decade after 9/11